2024 Tour De France Stage 9 Predictions | Favorites, Best Bets, H2H & Odds

Stage 9 of the 2024 Tour de France is set to be a thrilling spectacle, with 14 gravel sectors adding a unique challenge for the riders.​ Mathieu van der Poel is the favorite to win the stage at 4/1 odds, given his experience and performance in similar conditions.​ Tadej Pogacar, the current Yellow Jersey, is another strong contender at 22/1 odds, having proven himself on gravel in previous races.​ The unpredictable nature of the stage makes it difficult to predict a clear winner, but these two riders are the best bets for success.​

Stage 9 Preview

Stage 9 of the 2024 Tour de France promises a unique and challenging test for the riders. The 199km stage will start and finish in Troyes, but the highlight is the inclusion of 14 gravel sectors, totaling 32 kilometers.​ These sectors, scattered throughout the route, will introduce a significant element of unpredictability, potentially leading to punctures, crashes, and tactical shifts.​ The gravel segments, with their uneven surfaces and potential for surprises, will test the riders’ technical skills and resilience.​

Key Factors to Consider

Several key factors will influence the outcome of Stage 9.​ The gravel sectors will be a major determinant٫ as riders with experience and skill on such surfaces will have an advantage.​ The length of the stage٫ at 199km٫ will also test the riders’ endurance and stamina.​ The placement of the gravel sectors٫ with the final ones located just 9km from the finish٫ will create opportunities for late attacks and a chaotic sprint finish. Finally٫ the weather conditions٫ especially the potential for wind and rain٫ could further impact the race dynamics.​

Favorites

The two main favorites for Stage 9 are Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar.​ Van der Poel, the current World Road Race Champion, is known for his exceptional skills on gravel and has proven his ability to win in similar conditions.​ Pogacar, the current Yellow Jersey, has also demonstrated his strength on gravel, notably with his victory at the Strade Bianche in 2023.​ Both riders are in excellent form and have the potential to dominate the stage.​

Best Bets

Considering the challenging nature of Stage 9, with its 14 gravel sectors, it’s wise to consider bets that go beyond just the outright winner.​ Here are some suggestions for best bets on Stage 9⁚

• Each-way bet on Tadej Pogacar⁚ Given the unpredictable nature of the stage, a bet on Pogacar to finish in the top 3 provides a safer approach.​ His odds of 22/1 offer a decent return if he manages to stay close to the front.​
• Mathieu van der Poel to win⁚ While he’s the favorite, his odds of 4/1 reflect the high chance of success he has on a gravel stage.​ His experience and skills make him a strong bet for a stage victory.​
• Jasper Philipsen to finish in the top 3⁚ Philipsen has consistently finished in the top 3 in recent stages and has a chance to perform well in a sprint finish.​ However, given the unpredictable gravel sections, a top 3 finish is a safer bet than an outright win.​

Head-to-Head Matchups

Stage 9’s unpredictable gravel sections make head-to-head matchups particularly intriguing.​ Here are some key matchups to watch⁚

• Mathieu van der Poel vs.​ Tadej Pogacar⁚ This is a classic clash between two of the best all-around riders in the world. Van der Poel’s gravel experience gives him an edge, but Pogacar’s strength and resilience should not be underestimated.​
• Jasper Philipsen vs.​ Biniam Girmay⁚ These two sprinters have been battling it out in recent stages. While Philipsen hasn’t secured a victory yet, his consistent top-3 finishes suggest he could be a threat in a sprint finish if the peloton manages to stay together through the gravel.​
• Wout van Aert vs.​ Mathieu van der Poel⁚ This is a rematch of the World Championship where van der Poel beat van Aert in a thrilling solo effort.​ Both are strong riders on gravel, making this matchup a close call.​

Odds

The odds for Stage 9 reflect the unpredictable nature of the gravel sectors⁚

• Mathieu van der Poel⁚ 4/1 (implied probability of 20%)
• Jasper Philipsen⁚ 15/2 (implied probability of 11.​8%)
• Biniam Girmay⁚ 12/1 (implied probability of 7.​7%)
• Wout van Aert⁚ 16/1 (implied probability of 5.​9%)
• Tadej Pogacar⁚ 22/1 (implied probability of 4.3%)

While van der Poel is the favorite, the close odds suggest that several riders have a real chance of winning.​ The gravel sections could create chaos, opening the door for surprises and upsets.​

Expert Tips

Given the unique nature of Stage 9, experts are advising bettors to consider the following⁚

• Focus on riders with proven gravel experience⁚ Mathieu van der Poel, Tadej Pogacar, and Wout van Aert have all excelled in races with similar conditions, making them strong contenders.​
• Don’t underestimate the impact of mechanical issues⁚ The gravel sectors are prone to punctures and crashes, which could significantly impact the race outcome.​
• Consider each-way bets⁚ Due to the unpredictable nature of the stage, an each-way bet on a rider like Pogacar might be a safer strategy, as he could potentially secure a podium finish even if he doesn’t win.​

Remember, these are just expert opinions, and ultimately, the best betting strategy is one that aligns with your own analysis and risk tolerance.​

Stage 9 of the 2024 Tour de France promises to be a dramatic and unpredictable affair. The inclusion of 14 gravel sectors is a unique challenge that could shake up the overall standings and offer opportunities for riders who thrive in such conditions.​ While predicting the winner with certainty is difficult, Mathieu van der Poel and Tadej Pogacar are strong contenders, and an each-way bet on Pogacar could be a prudent strategy.​ Regardless of who wins, Stage 9 is sure to be a highlight of the Tour, providing excitement for both riders and spectators alike.​